Folding an +EV call.

Are we allways to make +EV calls? Well basically, it should not be wrong to make those calls - even the thinnest ones. But I'm sure many of you sharks out there have had many spots where you have folded even if it was a call, or not shoved in given +EV spots also.

I found a (for me) pretty clear spot the other day where I fold my hand although it was a +EV call. Here it comes:


What we know is that UTG and BTN is tight, and that the bigstack not have taking advantage of his chiplead by folding most hands.

We actually don't need to call risking to loose over half our stack, and most likely we are behind or in a coinflip which we absolutely have no need taking. But the most importing aspect is that if we fold, then in the next hand - givin the bigstack keeps folding - we can push pretty wide into the tight BB, and the hand after is a perfect bubble-setup for pushing any2.

I'm still struggling with some variance, but my winning sessions are bigger than my losing ones, and when I get hammered in the $10 I just play some $5. Its almost like there's no variance in those.
A nice consolation was my 2nd place in a VIP freeroll for $525.50 - I should play more MTTs...

Variance in life?

Is variance only something you talk about in poker? Or may it occur in our life also?

Of course it can! This is not a concept that only is related to poker, but fundamentally and scientifically can be defined by chaos theory.

Now I don't want to get too much into this theory, but one might describe it somewhat like "everything is probable".

Like when you mix a deck of cards, it would theoretically be likely to have mixed the cards so that they lie in order aces to kings in different colours.

Ultimately, one can imagine to mix 2 colours of paint, which then turns into a third colour. It is acc. chaos theory possible (because you mix a number of molecules together), after mixing the colours well together, again to get 2 separate colours!

Anyway, back to the variance in life. I personally got acquainted with life-variance here recently, thankfully, only a mechanical one of them:

1. chain broke on my son's bike $ 55
2. my cell phone went in the washing machine + $ 200
3. my son's newly purchased used moped leaked gasoline $ 36
4. steering box on my car broke $ 1.667!

all within 2 days as attributable to variance. Most likely, we can now look forward to the next several years without any mechanical problems.