You know you are doing well and running good when your days looks like this:
+$34.89
+$28
+$118
-$17
+$28
+$46
+$33
+$105
+$46
+$34.63
+$38
+$60
And - visa versa - you know when things are SOMEWHAT different:
-$14.25
-$3
-$3
-$1.10
-$17.25
all amounts from playing 6-8 tables of $10+1. Though I have to admit, todays session was starting with loading the $10 and ended with loading some $2 - LMAO.
I somehow (funny hah) felt the variance sneaking up on me the last many days/sets, and when my first table of todays $10 started (ended!) like this:
Full Tilt Poker Game: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (214179879), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 03:26:42 ET - 2011/01/24
Seat 1: Clinto_NZ (1,310)
Seat 2: R Calazans (1,215)
Seat 3: Firmian (2,285)
Seat 4: Sweetdeals (1,075)
Seat 5: PokaProphet (1,250)
Seat 6: Juanin52 (1,455), is sitting out
Seat 7: HERO (1,080)
Seat 8: ecirtap1977 (1,970)
Seat 9: Slickville (1,860)
ecirtap1977 posts the small blind of 20
Slickville posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Tc Th]
Clinto_NZ folds
R Calazans folds
Firmian folds
Sweetdeals folds
PokaProphet folds
Juanin52 folds
HERO raises to 120
ecirtap1977 folds
Slickville calls 80
*** FLOP *** [4s 6h 5s]
Slickville bets 360
HERO raises to 960, and is all in
Slickville calls 600
HERO shows [Tc Th]
Slickville shows [As 5d]
*** TURN *** [4s 6h 5s] [8s]
*** RIVER *** [4s 6h 5s 8s] [Js]
HERO shows a pair of Tens
Slickville shows a flush, Ace high
Slickville wins the pot (2,180) with a flush, Ace high
I just knew how my path of badbeats was laid out for me. And of course I had to be humiliated with a runner runner flush. FFS just give him an A or another 5. This hand also shows you why these games are so juicy, but variance rules!
Only consolation is that I'm able to cut my losses to a minimum, but I'm seriously considering just playing the $2+0.25 to reduce losses further. Also I can juggle a bit with more tables, setups, and playing continuous, so that I'm prepared when things turn normal.
This day needs some song with power, and I introduce to you the Danish band "Nephew"
Monday, January 24, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Raping the regulars
Okay, don't misunderstand me. I'm not messing with some REG player, just running over the regular sng-tables as you can see:
Yes looks amazing - right? Nevertheless, taking out the luck I'm still running at 24.8% EV-adjusted ROI for the $10+1, so when variance settles I guess it's going to fade out somewhere between 15-20%, hopefully just around 20%. The ITM also looks like something one would wish would last forever, and it's nice to have some ROI and ITM to "spend".
As you can see I have played a few sets with 8 tables which have been going rather well, only trouble is how to arrange those 8 tables on my screen. At some point I have to consider playing more tables for higher $/hour, but maybe I'll stick to my old plan of moving up through the limits with just 4-6 tables - remember I'm not playing for the money (yearh right) but for the challenge.
When megatabling, you are missing many valuable spots. One is, when someone is betting into a pot without you having a hand. But playing fewer tables you can have full control and find spots where you can take control of the play. Here I will show you some:
Full Tilt Poker Game #27174042783: $10 + $1 Sit & Go, Table 1 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 03:19:32 ET - 2011/01/11
Seat 1: IrishCubsFan1 (1,150)
Seat 2: New Yoyk (2,750)
Seat 3: MattySpacowski2 (1,035)
Seat 5: lvtravellers (2,380)
Seat 6: funk1 (2,050)
Seat 7: HERO (2,240)
Seat 9: Oliver Grinder (1,895)
funk1 posts the small blind of 50
HERO posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Kh 6h]
Oliver Grinder folds
IrishCubsFan1 folds
New Yoyk folds
MattySpacowski2 folds
lvtravellers folds
funk1 has 15 seconds left to act
funk1 calls 50
HERO checks
*** FLOP *** [Jc 3c 7h]
funk1 bets 100
HERO has 15 seconds left to act
HERO raises to 245
funk1 folds
Uncalled bet of 145 returned to HERO
HERO mucks
HERO wins the pot (400)
His minbet screams steal - and I'm not likely to let those 200(300) go without a fight - so a little raise does the job.
Here is one HU from another game:
Full Tilt Poker Game #27174366521: $10 + $1 Sit & Go, Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 03:51:55 ET - 2011/01/11
Seat 6: Spanky25 (5,220)
Seat 9: HERO (8,280)
HERO posts the small blind of 150
Spanky25 posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [8s 7d]
HERO calls 150
Spanky25 checks
*** FLOP *** [As Tc Ks]
Spanky25 bets 300
HERO has 15 seconds left to act
HERO raises to 745
Spanky25 calls 445
*** TURN *** [As Tc Ks] [5c]
Spanky25 checks
HERO bets 945
Spanky25 has 15 seconds left to act
Spanky25 folds
Uncalled bet of 945 returned to HERO
HERO mucks
HERO wins the pot (2,090)
Again I don't value his donkbet much, and think I can get him to fold if I raise. But when he calls he must have something, most likely some kind of a draw, the king or the ten. The river is a blank, so when he checks I'm pretty sure he will fold to a second bullet where I can rep an ace or even a str8 - and he does!
Now all good things come to an end, and lately my luck has been fading out - running even-EV - and my last 2 sets have been -EV, so maybe my next post will be about variance?
Yes looks amazing - right? Nevertheless, taking out the luck I'm still running at 24.8% EV-adjusted ROI for the $10+1, so when variance settles I guess it's going to fade out somewhere between 15-20%, hopefully just around 20%. The ITM also looks like something one would wish would last forever, and it's nice to have some ROI and ITM to "spend".
As you can see I have played a few sets with 8 tables which have been going rather well, only trouble is how to arrange those 8 tables on my screen. At some point I have to consider playing more tables for higher $/hour, but maybe I'll stick to my old plan of moving up through the limits with just 4-6 tables - remember I'm not playing for the money (yearh right) but for the challenge.
When megatabling, you are missing many valuable spots. One is, when someone is betting into a pot without you having a hand. But playing fewer tables you can have full control and find spots where you can take control of the play. Here I will show you some:
Full Tilt Poker Game #27174042783: $10 + $1 Sit & Go, Table 1 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 03:19:32 ET - 2011/01/11
Seat 1: IrishCubsFan1 (1,150)
Seat 2: New Yoyk (2,750)
Seat 3: MattySpacowski2 (1,035)
Seat 5: lvtravellers (2,380)
Seat 6: funk1 (2,050)
Seat 7: HERO (2,240)
Seat 9: Oliver Grinder (1,895)
funk1 posts the small blind of 50
HERO posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Kh 6h]
Oliver Grinder folds
IrishCubsFan1 folds
New Yoyk folds
MattySpacowski2 folds
lvtravellers folds
funk1 has 15 seconds left to act
funk1 calls 50
HERO checks
*** FLOP *** [Jc 3c 7h]
funk1 bets 100
HERO has 15 seconds left to act
HERO raises to 245
funk1 folds
Uncalled bet of 145 returned to HERO
HERO mucks
HERO wins the pot (400)
His minbet screams steal - and I'm not likely to let those 200(300) go without a fight - so a little raise does the job.
Here is one HU from another game:
Full Tilt Poker Game #27174366521: $10 + $1 Sit & Go, Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 03:51:55 ET - 2011/01/11
Seat 6: Spanky25 (5,220)
Seat 9: HERO (8,280)
HERO posts the small blind of 150
Spanky25 posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [8s 7d]
HERO calls 150
Spanky25 checks
*** FLOP *** [As Tc Ks]
Spanky25 bets 300
HERO has 15 seconds left to act
HERO raises to 745
Spanky25 calls 445
*** TURN *** [As Tc Ks] [5c]
Spanky25 checks
HERO bets 945
Spanky25 has 15 seconds left to act
Spanky25 folds
Uncalled bet of 945 returned to HERO
HERO mucks
HERO wins the pot (2,090)
Again I don't value his donkbet much, and think I can get him to fold if I raise. But when he calls he must have something, most likely some kind of a draw, the king or the ten. The river is a blank, so when he checks I'm pretty sure he will fold to a second bullet where I can rep an ace or even a str8 - and he does!
Now all good things come to an end, and lately my luck has been fading out - running even-EV - and my last 2 sets have been -EV, so maybe my next post will be about variance?
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Trying the $20+2
Could not resist trying out the next level, so started up 2 tables of $20+2 regular sng.
Had a pretty good start on the first table, but then ran a little carddead. Then at level 40/80 I have queens in the bigblind, and face an UTG+1 3x raise. My stack is 1595 so I don't want to push, and just call hoping not to see an ace. Flop comes 3 blanks under 9 and I checkraise him all-in, just to see two kings! But a lovely lady shows up on the river. I make 3rd place shoving 9bb with K6 into A9s.
On the second table I make it to the bubble with 3rd in chips, but then 17 hands in a row I get NO cards and NO opportunities to push . Furthermore I sit after the low stack who is a REG, and the REG has a fish to his right who folds or limps his small blind to him. And of course I have another REG sitting after me! If only the seating had been different I think i could have made it in the money here also?
Have to say that if I had not been lucky in BOTH games, I would have lost the $44.
This level however, is almost like another world of playing. Usually I study the next level before trying it out so that I have the regs marked, but this time I did it in game. And when we finished I saw that I had been playing 3 regs in each game. Not +EV!
Still, most players at this level knows what they are doing. But when I have gathered some more money on level $10+1 and have studied and found the regs in level $20+2 - I will move up, and I will counqer!
Had a pretty good start on the first table, but then ran a little carddead. Then at level 40/80 I have queens in the bigblind, and face an UTG+1 3x raise. My stack is 1595 so I don't want to push, and just call hoping not to see an ace. Flop comes 3 blanks under 9 and I checkraise him all-in, just to see two kings! But a lovely lady shows up on the river. I make 3rd place shoving 9bb with K6 into A9s.
On the second table I make it to the bubble with 3rd in chips, but then 17 hands in a row I get NO cards and NO opportunities to push . Furthermore I sit after the low stack who is a REG, and the REG has a fish to his right who folds or limps his small blind to him. And of course I have another REG sitting after me! If only the seating had been different I think i could have made it in the money here also?
Have to say that if I had not been lucky in BOTH games, I would have lost the $44.
This level however, is almost like another world of playing. Usually I study the next level before trying it out so that I have the regs marked, but this time I did it in game. And when we finished I saw that I had been playing 3 regs in each game. Not +EV!
Still, most players at this level knows what they are doing. But when I have gathered some more money on level $10+1 and have studied and found the regs in level $20+2 - I will move up, and I will counqer!
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